S+Jenkins,+Brian

** E-mail: ** brian.jenkins@maine.edu
 * Teacher:** Brian P. Jenkins
 * Office:** 185 Main St, Farmington, ME
 * Office Phone:** 207-232-8317
 * Office Hours:** N/A

=Summary of Unit=

Many students in today’s school systems have a strong disdain for mathematics. This is probably caused in large part of its seemingly dry nature of right and wrong answers, causing a lack of creativity within the field, and also by the lack of teachers’ ability to establish a lasting connection to the day to day real world. This unit is designed to engage students through creative type 2 uses of everyday scenarios. Data, frequency, and probability are all used every day in and out of school. Stock markets, statistics, advertising, driving, and whether reports are all examples of day to day use of data analysis. In this unit we will learn how to effectively calculate probability and frequency to relate it to our everyday lives.

=Establish Goals= Maine Learning Results: Mathematics- B. Data Probability Grade 9-Diploma Students understand the relationship of probability to relative frequency and know how to find probability. c. Find the probability of compound independent and compound dependent events.

= = =Students will understand that= •The relationship of probability to relative frequency. •The expected frequency of an event. •The probability of compound events, independent and dependent.

= = =Essential Questions= • Why and how probability relates to relative frequency? • Why would we need to know somethings expected frequency? • How to calculate the probability of compound independent and compound dependent events?

= = =Students will know= •Definitions: Probability, Frequency, experiment, outcome, exclusive, independent, dependent, conditional probability •Formulas: Multiplication rule, addition rule, Independence compliment •Terminology: Mutually exclusive, compliment, independent, dependent

= = =Students will be able to= • Predict the frequency of an event. • Evaluate the probability of compound events. • Exhibit skills to successfully produce frequency • Compare and contrast the relationship between probability and relative frequency. • Consider the expected frequency of an event. • Recognize the probability of compound events.

**Performance Task Overview** **__ Official MEMO __** As we all know, ticket sales have been down the last few months. Studies being conducted all around the league have shown that the fans, our ticket buyers, want to see more exciting games, I know this is may be completely obvious, however it would be ridiculous to ignore the evidence that has alluded to the fact that teams with more individual accomplishments in one game, leads to more tickets sold. In light of this new evidence I have proposed this;
 * General Manager Theo Epstein, to members of the statistics department;**

To the analyst that can prove to me; 1) In a single MLB game, which is more probable of taking place; 1. A player hitting three homeruns in one game, or 2. A player hitting for the cycle. 2) Do your calculations on a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. 3) Take a digital screen shot of your calculations and results. 4) Now choose a pool of players that are available for acquisition. 5) Within your pool, determine which player is most likely to hit three homeruns in one game. 6) Withing your pool determine which player is most likely to hit for the cycle in one game. 7) Do your calculations in a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. 8) Take a screen shot of your calculations and results. 9) Now using your findings create a garage band sound track that lasts no more than 2 minutes to describe to me which is more probable within the MLB, a three homerun game, or a player hitting for the cycle, and which players are the best candidates to, a. hit three homeruns in one game, and b. hit for the cycle in one game. 9) Send me a voice mail of your GarageBand so that I can get an early understanding of your results. (I'm away on business) 10) Now using your Excel spread sheets, and any other evidence that will help support your results, create a power point to explain the process you went through to end up with these results. 11) Present the power point to me and the board once I have returned from business trip.
 * $50,000 Bonus; **

Good luck to all, Theo

=Expectations= • **Respect**- The foremost important responsibility I ask of my students is to RESPECT everyone and everything. As the age old cliche says, "Treat others the way you want to be treated." I do not expect my students to allow that to pertain to only people in the classroom. Please be respectful of your surroundings along with your peers and other teachers. The respect that you extend to others will be reflected right back to you. I don't believe I can stress this enough. I'm extending this responsibility to my students, I believe in you! I promise I will respect every single one of you. I respect everyone of you just for showing up everyday! Which is another thing!

• **Attendance**- I expect that all students will come to every class. However, I understand that sometimes things come up, people get sick, and you have to miss class. If such a case should arise that a student misses class I would like you to follow this procedure... 1) Notify the main office. The case of the "Missing Student" is rarely solved in a productive way for the student in question.

2) Notify me! Call the school, shoot me an email, tell a friend of yours to stop by! This would be preferable to know before class, but again, I understand things come up unexpectedly.

3) Come see me ASAP! I can catch you up with the homework, and if time is available, we can go over the class lesson.

3 b.) If we are unable to arrange a meeting in person, be sure to contact me and I will get the class notes and homework available to you. Whether this is on a class wiki, an email, or giving it to someone to drop off, YOU WILL RECEIVE THE INFORMATION!

If there is any instance where a student should miss class and does not follow the proper protocol, I'm leaving it up to you to get the class notes and homework from somebody. If you're confident you do not need to see me to catch you up, just come check in. If this case is true and you don't need me to assist you, we lost 2 minutes of the day!
 * SO BE SURE YOU COME SEE ME ASAP AFTER AN ABSENCE!!!!!!!**

• **Plagiarism-** Because this is a math class I don't expect to have many essays and whatnot. However I do expect the same amount of Academic Integrity as any other class. This means that should there be an essay, just do everyone a favor and CITE YOUR SOURCES! and obviously don't steal other peoples work. In today's world you might as well hold up a bank if your going to plagiarize. Along with that, DO NOT CHEAT ON HOMEWORK, TESTS, OR QUIZZES. This again will only find you in a world of trouble, and the worst part is that you won't know the curriculum! Homework is mostly effort based, it's a way for me to see how your progress is going! SO DO IT! It's for your benefit! If you do your homework and try as hard as you can on it, i promise you won't want to cheat on a test or quiz, it will just be a great opportunity to prove to me how insanely well you know the material!!!

I have all the faith in the world in you guys! The world will be your playground as long as you work hard and do your best in every endeavor you find yourself in! I'm very excited to have a new class, and can't wait to get to know you guys! So, GOOD LUCK, not that you'll need it, and do your best!

=Benchmarks=

Students will be assessed on a progressive point scale of **762 points**. (Career Homerun Record)


 * Participation- 191 (Single Season RBI Record)**- Students' participation will be determined by attendance (points will not be deducted if excused and proper protocol is met) as well as students effort level. In other words, There's a free 191 points if you show up and try hard!


 * Homework- 73 (Single Season HR Record)**- Students' homework will be primarily effort based. It will be used as a tool to evaluate progression. Again, if you do your work you get another free 73 points.


 * Tests/Quizzes- 130 (Single Season Stolen Base Record)**- Tests and Quizzes are again ways to evaluate progress. They are worth more than homework because successful tests and quizzes shows me that you have mastered the content!


 * Performance Task- 100 points**

• You will research a topic of your choice, pending approval, and collect data on it. Using data that you find, you will create a poster on Globster to use graphs, charts, and other visual aids in order to display the prediction of a future event. Through your knowledge of probability and frequency, you will analyze the data, and predict a future event involving your research topic. **(51 points)**

• In your teams, you will work together to produce an excel spreadsheet that will give the results of the probability of a series of Black Jack hands. Displaying your knowledge of calculating the probability of compound events is essential to this project. In your teams, you will present the results and findings as they are displayed on your excel spreadsheets. **(51 points)**

• In groups, decide on one of the given resources to research and collect data on. Use the data collected to project your resources probability of future events, and compare your collected data to previous events to determine the frequency. Create an i-movie to display the process and your findings. **(35 points)**

• We will be creating a group wiki to evaluate the probability of compound events. On this wiki, each student will create their own page and add one event in real life that they experienced that used compound probability. You will need to be able to describe why this experience was an example of compound probability, calculate the probability of the results, what the actual result was, and how it differed from non-compound probability.
 * (45 points)**

• Using comic-life, create a story that depicts the relationship of relative frequency and probability. In this story you will develop how to calculate probability and frequency, and what the two have in common, and how they are different. This project is designed so that you can get creative and think of some good ways to represent the relationship between probability and frequency. The story does not have to be a real life situation or example, however I will give you a hint and say that there are TONS of them out there. **(35 points)**

• Create a podcast to discuss the differences in calculating the probability of compound independent, and compound dependent events. Your podcast's should highlight the differences between compound probability and probability, independent probability and dependent probability, and explain why these are different types of probability. You also will have to come up with at least, but not limited to, two examples of real life situations for each. **(51 points)** =Grading Scale= **A** (93% -100%), **A-** (90% - 92%), **B+** (87% - 89%), **B** (83% - 86%), **B-** (80 %- 82%), **C+**(77% - 79%), **C** (73%-76%),
 * C-** (70% - 72%), **D+**(67% - 69%), **D** (63% - 66%), **D-** (60% - 62%), **F** (0% - 59%)