S2+Jenkins,+Brian

=Stage 2 - Determine Acceptable Evidence.=

• In teams, students will do research on the probability of different sets of hands in a black jack game. Using excel students will organize their results and present them to the class • In groups, decide on one of the given resources to rescearch and collect data on. Use the data collected to project your resources probability of future events, and compare your collected data to previous events to determine the frequency. Create an i-movie to display the process and your findings. • Create a group wiki to evaluate the probability of compound events • Using comic-life, create a story that depicts the relationship of realitive frequency and probability. • Create a podcast to discuss the differences in calculating the probability of compund independent, and compund depenent events. || • Wikispace; students will post their progress on a wikispace discussing problems and new infromation they have found while working on this project. • Post-Assessment; Students will reflect in a short essay they bring to class. In groups students will share what problems arose, what parts of the project went well, what was difficult and challenging, and what was easy. Students will then write a one page wrap-up paper, first giving themselves a grade on how well they felt they met the requirements, then explaining why, or why not, they deserve a good grade. || =Assessment Task Blue Print=
 * **Performance Task (Summary in G.R.A.S.P.S. form):** **(T)** ||
 * **Goal:** First determine which of the following is more probable; an individual player hitting, 3 homeruns in one game, or hitting for the cycle in one game. Second, choose a player pool, Power, Average, or Speed. Then determine within your pool of choice, which player from your pool is most probable to hit 3 homeruns in one game, AND which player from your pool is most probable to hit for the cycle.
 * Role:** You are a statistician for the Boston Red Sox.
 * Audience:** Your General Manager; in order to boost ticket prices, wants to see more three homerun games, and more players hit for the cycle at Fenway.
 * Situation:** There is a $50,000 bonus to whoever can choose which players have the best probablilty of, hitting 3 homeruns in one game, and players who have the most probability of hitting for the cycle. Of course these pools are limited to the players that the team is capable of aquireing.
 * Product/Presentation:** You will analyze your results, and organize them on a power point using excel sheets, and any other evidence that will help you to support your findings. You will then present the essential material to your GM via garageband no longer than 2 minutes. Then you will present your power point in detail to your GM and the board of trustees.
 * Standards (Criteria from both rubrics - product and presentation):** Probability and Frequency Presentation; Content 40%, Preparedness 30%, Posture and Eye Contact 10%, Speaks Clearly 5%, Vocabulary 5%, Attire 5% Product- Gave Results- 30%, Professionalism- 25%, Originality- 20%, Confidence- 10%, Use of Sound Effects- 10%, Clarity- 5% ||
 * Other Evidence (quizzes, test, prompts, observations, dialogues, work sample, etc.):**
 * **Other Evidence** **(OE)** ||
 * • Using globster, create a poster with graphs and charts to display research and data that you have collected on a project of special interest to you
 * Student Self-Assessment and Reflection**
 * **Self-Assessment** **(SA)** ||
 * • Pre-Assessment; the students will take a pre-assessment test to display their knowledge of probability, frequency, and calculating compound events.

//**What understandings/goals will be assessed through this task?**// **(G)** • The relationship between probability and frequency. || • Mathematics- B. Data Probability B-5 Students understand the relationship of probability to realitive frequency and know how to find probability. c. Find the probability of compound independent and compound dependent events. ||
 * **Understanding** || **Goal (MLR)** ||
 * • The probability of compound events; independent and dependent.

What criteria are implied in the standard(s) understanding(s) regardless of the task specifics? What qualities must student work demonstrate to signify that standards were met?
 * **Big Ideas** || **Big Ideas** ||
 * • Probability and Frequency || • Data Analysis ||

//**Through what authentic performance task will students demonstrate understandings?**// As we all know, ticket sales have been down the last few months. Studies being conducted all around the league have shown that the fans, our ticket buyers, want to see more exciting games, I know this is may be completely obvious, however it would be ridiculous to ignore the evidence that has alluded to the fact that teams with more individual accomplishments in one game, leads to more tickets sold. In light of this new evidence I have proposed this;
 * **Task Description:** **(T)** ||
 * **__ Official MEMO __**
 * General Manager Theo Epstein, to members of the statistics department;**

To the analyst that can prove to me; 1) In a single MLB game, which is more probable of taking place; 1. A player hitting three homeruns in one game, or 2. A player hitting for the cycle. 2) Do your calculations on a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. 3) Take a digital screen shot of your calculations and results. 4) Now choose a pool of players that are available for acquisition. 5) Within your pool, determine which player is most likely to hit three homeruns in one game. 6) Withing your pool determine which player is most likely to hit for the cycle in one game. 7) Do your calculations in a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. 8) Take a screen shot of your calculations and results. 9) Now using your findings create a garage band sound track that lasts no more than 2 minutes to describe to me which is more probable within the MLB, a three homerun game, or a player hitting for the cycle, and which players are the best candidates to, a. hit three homeruns in one game, and b. hit for the cycle in one game. 9) Send me a voice mail of your garageband so that I can get an early understanding of your results. (I'm away on business) 10) Now using your Excel spread sheets, and any other evidence that will help support your results, create a power point to explain the process you went through to end up with these results. 11) Present the power point to me and the board once I have returned from business trip.
 * $50,000 Bonus; **

Good luck to all, Theo ||

//**What student products/performances will provide evidence of desired understandings?**//
 * **Type II Product** || **Type of Presentation** ||
 * • GarageBand || •Power PointPresentation ||

//**By what criteria will student products/performances be evaluated?**// • Professionalism 25% • Originality 20% • Confidence 10% • Use of Sound Effects 10% • Clarity 5% || • Content 40% • Preparedness 30% • Posture and Eye Contact 10% • Speaks Clearly 10% • Vocabulary 10% • Attire 10% ||
 * **Product Criteria** || **Presentation Criteria** ||
 * • Gave Results 30%
 * 2004 ASCD and Grant Wiggins and Jay McTighe**


 * Changed Product Rubric.
 * Created more descriptive performance task.
 * Gave a more descriptive goal and product/presentation.
 * Changed Product from Power Point to Garageband.